Could an American pope be waiting in the wings? Experts weigh in

With more than 61 million Catholics and the second-highest number of cardinals after Italy, the United States is primed for the question of whether an American pontiff is possible in the wake of Pope Francis’ death on Monday.

Francis, a Jesuit from Argentina who died in the early hours of Monday at age 88, after 12 years as leader of the Roman Catholic Church, was the first non-European pope in nearly 1,300 years.

Tune into ABC at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday for the ABC News special, “Francis: The People’s Pope.” Also available to stream on Hulu and Disney+ on Wednesday.

The United States has 17 cardinals, 10 of whom are eligible to vote in the election of the next pope, according to the Vatican. The country with the most cardinals is Italy, which has 51, including 17 eligible to vote for the next pontiff, according to the Vatican.

The United States has 61.9 million Catholics, representing about 19% of the total population, according to the most recent U.S. Religion Census conducted in 2020 by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies.

Even though the U.S. has one of the largest Catholic populations in the world, some experts told ABC News that the likelihood of the next pontiff coming from America is a long shot.

Anne Barrett Doyle, co-director of BishopAccountability.org, a watchdog group that tracks clergy child abuse cases in the Catholic Church worldwide, told ABC News that if an American were selected as pope, it could be perceived as “overwhelming,” given the United States’ global dominance already.

“If the Catholic Church were also run by an American, the global dominance of the U.S. would be simply pervasive and overwhelming,” said Barrett Doyle.

Technically, any man baptized in the Catholic Church can become pope, according to the Vatican. But popes are typically chosen from the College of Cardinals. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are allowed to participate in electing a pope.

Cristina Traina, a religious studies professor at Fordham University, told ABC News that several U.S. cardinals have been floated as possible successors to Francis.

“I think it’s unlikely because the American church is seen as contentious at this moment,” Traina said of the prospect of an American being chosen as the next pope. “So, I think they are much more likely to go either for a European or someone from the global south or Asia.”

Traina, however, said Cardinal Joseph Tobin, the archbishop of the Archdiocese of Newark, New Jersey since 2017, has emerged as a possible candidate.

The 73-year-old Tobin was named by Pope Francis to the College of Cardinals in 2016 to serve as the Archbishop of Indianapolis, after Pope Benedict XVI appointed him in 2012, according to his biography on the New Jersey Catholic Conference website.

Tobin previously served in several positions in the Catholic Church, including pastor of St. Alphonsus Parish in Chicago and General Consultor of the Community of Rome and Superior General of Redemptorists in Rome, according to his biography.

In a statement released Monday on the passing of Pope Francis, Tobin said, “He was a man of deep faith, profound humility, unshakable hope — a servant whose tireless call to care for the poor and marginalized will continue to inspire the Church for generations to come.”

Another American cardinal who has been mentioned as a possible successor to Francis is Cardinal Robert Prevost. The 69-year-old Chicago-born Prevost was the only U.S. cardinal included on a shot list of front-runners for pope, also known as “papabiles,” compiled in the aftermath of Francis’ death by the Associated Press.

Since 2023, Prevost has held the position at the Vatican as Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, in charge of vetting nominations for bishops around the world, according to his profile on the Vatican Press Office website. Francis brought Prevost to work at the Vatican after first appointing him in 2014 to serve as the bishop of Chiclayo, Peru. Prevost is also president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.

Dr. Miles Pattenden, a historian of the Catholic Church and a lecturer of history at Oxford University in England, also told ABC News that the prospect of an American pope this time around is “very unlikely.”

Pattenden noted that Pope Francis had a history of clashing with the Trump administration — going back to Trump’s first term in office, when he criticized building of U.S.-Mexico border wall, saying, “A person who thinks about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian.”

In a public letter to U.S. Catholic bishops in February, Pope Francis described the mass deportation crackdown ordered by President Donald Trump’s administration as a “major crisis.”

“There has traditionally been a lot of wariness about a pope from the Anglosphere,” Pattenden said. “I shouldn’t think that the current circumstances change that, especially now with the tensions between the Vatican and the Trump administration.”

Trump said on Monday that he and first lady Melania Trump plan to travel to Rome to attend Pope Francis’ funeral.

“I just signed an executive order putting the flags of our country, all of them, all federal flags, and state flags, at half-mast in honor of Pope Francis,” Trump said at the White House. “So, he was a good man. Worked hard. He — he loved the world.”