In his 2nd term, it’s Trump vs. the world: ANALYSIS

When President Donald J. Trump took the oath of office for the second time, he promised that the moment marked not only the culmination of his own extraordinary political comeback, but a resurgence on the global stage for the United States as a whole.

“From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world,” he declared in his inaugural address. “We will be the envy of every nation, and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer.”

Trump’s vow to “very simply, put America first” over a world he says has taken advantage of it for far too long, and the frenetic speed at which his administration moved to implement his vision, has sparked ample amounts of conflict and chaos, putting the U.S. at odds at with its traditional allies and injecting new uncertainty into longstanding conflicts.

Experts and officials say that the dramatic transformation of American statecraft during the first 100 days of Trump’s second term promise to have lasting impact on the country and its global standing — and meaningful reverberations for the world order at large.

Trade wars go global

During his first four years in the White House, Trump ignited no shortage of trade disputes, taking on China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico at varying points throughout the term while also issuing tariffs on various categories of imports.

When he returned to Washington, Trump wasted little time — almost immediately waging a sweeping campaign against what he says are grossly unbalanced economic partnerships and double-dealing international institutions designed to swindle the U.S.

Yet, Trump’s trade fights have been as a volatile as they are contentious, with tariff hikes often delayed by last minute reprieves. This added uncertainty has shaken investors and perhaps exacerbated many American consumers’ sense of economic unease.

“So far, the results have been spectacularly bad. Trump’s trade policy has lurched from empty threats to sweeping tariffs to humiliating retreats, roiling markets and destroying remaining confidence in U.S. economic leadership,” said Edward Alden, a columnist at Foreign Policy and visiting professor at Western Washington University.

“Unless the administration can bring some discipline to its approach, Trump will accomplish none of his goals and leave the United States poorer and weaker,” he continued.

But tariffs have also evolved into a tool deployed by the White House to coerce foreign governments to comply with its broader agenda.

Just days after his return to the White House, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Colombia if its President Gustavo Petro didn’t agree to take in deportees from the U.S. Petro initially said he would impose retaliatory tariffs but soon reversed course — accepting two planeloads of migrants.

Additionally, Trump’s hawkish approach to tariffs has fueled tension between the world’s two largest economies: China and the U.S.

The trade relationship between the U.S. and Beijing was a frequent target of Trump’s ire during his first term. Now, he has taken the feud to the next level– raising levies on Chinese imports as high as 145%.

This time around also feels like a more personal battle between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. White House officials have hinted that trade negotiations between the nations have been quietly taking place — a claim China’s foreign ministry adamantly denies. Beijing also disputes a claim the president made in a recent interview with Time that Xi had called him.

“With both sides convinced they hold the advantage — and neither signaling a shift in posture — the U.S.-China relationship is entering a new era of heightened confrontation,” said Craig Singleton, the senior director of the China Program at Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Despite the apparent lack of progress toward a trade deal with China, the White House says more than 100 countries around the world have come to the table in the wake of the president’s tariff war — a dynamic that will test the administration’s ability to simultaneously carry out so many complicated economic negotiations in the weeks and months to come.

Expansionist intent

In his second term, the president’s international ambitions have extended well beyond tariffs. Even before taking office, Trump indicated he was laser focused on assuming control of two foreign territories: the Panama Canal and Greenland.

Administration officials often argue that in both cases, the president is primarily concerned about foreign interference and its impact on national security. But other statements and actions signal there may be more at play.

On Saturday, Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform that American ships should be able to transit the Panama Canal as well as Egypt’s Suez Canal free of charge, adding that he had directed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to “immediately take care of” the situation.

And when Vice President J.D. Vance visited Greenland in March, he indicated that the Trump administration’s interest in the territory was fueled in part by interest in edging out China and Russia in the competition for the rare earth resources that may lie buried under its ice sheet.

“We know that Russia and China and other nations are taking an extraordinary interest in Arctic passageways and Arctic naval routes and indeed in the minerals of the Arctic territories. We need to ensure that America is leading in the Arctic, because we know that if America doesn’t other nations will fill the gap where we fall behind,” Vance said.

The Trump administration’s drive to secure critical minerals is also intertwined in its dealings with Ukraine and appears to have motivated efforts to secure peace in other areas of the world. As part of its work to pave the way for U.S. investments in the mineral-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo, the administration has played a key role in brokering peace negotiations between the country and Rwanda.

Deals deferred

Meanwhile, other longstanding conflicts the president initially declared he would swiftly resolve continue to rage as U.S. mediation efforts sputter.

Trump famously said he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine on “day one” of his second term — a claim he now says was “an exaggeration.”

The first 100 days of the second Trump term have seen the U.S. approach to Russia and Ukraine undergo a dramatic shift.

With Moscow, the Trump administration has brought about a significant warming of relations. Delegations from both the U.S. and Russia have been involved in slow but steady talks to revive their diplomatic presences in each other’s countries, while top Trump administration negotiator Steve Witkoff has now met face-to-face with Russian leader Vladimir Putin four times.

Dealings with Ukraine, on the other hand, have presented some of the administration’s most intense and iconic foreign policy moments.

In late February, Trump, Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sparred inside the Oval Office. After the spat, Zelenskyy was instructed to leave the White House

Over this past weekend, in an entirely different scene from the Oval Office encounter, Trump and Zelensky met again — this time, just two of them sitting alone, inside a hushed St. Peter’s Basilica as world leaders gathered at the Vatican to pay their last respects to Pope Francis.

Amid the stark highs and lows of his interactions with Zelenskyy, Trump has repeatedly insisted he is neutral and simply wants to put an end to the bloodshed.

But Trump and his administration have also set a tight deadline for U.S. involvement in the process, with the president declaring after his meeting with Zelenskyy that he expected to see progress within “two weeks or less.”

Critics of the Trump administration’s approach have consistently faulted the president for failing to hold the Kremlin accountable.

“Trump’s desire for peace is laudable. But the way he has pursued it — undercutting Ukraine while putting no tangible pressure on Russia — leaves much to be desired,” said John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“The shift in Washington’s Ukraine policy under Trump has contributed to a broader erosion of European trust in America,” he continued. “The silver lining: Europe now appears more serious than ever about stepping up on defense.”

On Wednesday, the 101st day of the president’s term, the Trump administration did secure one deal with Ukraine — signing onto a long-awaited partnership with the country that gives American businesses access to Ukraine’s mineral resources.

Administration officials say the partnership will provide Kyiv with implicit security guarantees by increasing U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s economy, but the agreement has no direct impact on efforts to finally bring the war with Russia to a close.

Israel, Gaza

With Israel’s war in Gaza, the Trump administration has taken a more hands-off approach, even though the conflict appeared to be on the brink of a resolution when he re-entered the White House in January.

In tandem with the outgoing Biden administration, Trump officials worked to secure a three-phase ceasefire/hostage-release that saw the release of 33 captives that had been detained since the Oct. 7 attacks, including two Americans. But the framework fell apart before the parties could move into its second phase, which would see the release of the final American hostage held in Gaza.

Despite promises to find an endgame for the conflict, much of Trump’s focus seems to have been on his unusual proposal to relocate Gazans and redevelop the territory, a pitch that was met by widespread backlash.

But Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and former National Security Council official, says Trump will eventually have to take on the conflict — or see his agenda constrained by it.

“The Israeli-Palestinian front remains the thorniest and most difficult challenge to producing progress in the Middle East. Without a clear game plan to end the war, bring hostages home, and improve the living conditions for the 2 million Palestinians in Gaza, the Trump administration’s wider aspirations for the Middle East will continue to face limits,” he said.

In the first months of his term, Trump has also rekindled long-stagnant nuclear talks with Iran — while also declaring he would be “leading the pack” in a military strike on the country if it did not ultimately agree to a deal.

Diplomacy deconstructed

The initial weeks of Trump’s second term have seen no shortage of turmoil in Washington, and the president’s aims of shrinking the federal government and ramping up efficiency have resulted in significant cuts to diplomatic structures.

As one of his first executive actions, Trump ordered a freeze on all foreign aid spending. His administration quickly began lobbing accusations of fraud and other misdeeds against the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and moved to close it. By February it had suspended most of its employees, and by March, officials developed plans to fold the few programs that had not been cancelled into the framework of the State Department.

But the State Department is also bracing for major staffing reductions. In April, Rubio unveiled plans to drastically overhaul the department by sharply cutting the number of offices within it and ultimately wiping out roughly 700 Washington, D.C.-based positions for Foreign Service and Civil Service employees.

Additionally, Rubio has instructed leaders throughout the department to draw up plans to reduce their personnel by 15% — a move that could lead to thousands of additional job cuts.

Already, the second Trump administration has seen the State Department shift its focus from international organizations and peacekeeping efforts to carrying out the president’s deportation goals and securing the southern border. Rubio’s first actions in his post include designating international cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and securting various deals with South American and Central American nations — including, most controversially, El Salvador — to accept deportees from the U.S.

Beyond Washington, Trump has also withdrawn from a number of international organizations, including the World Health Organization and the United Nations Human Rights Council.

At the 100-day mark, there is one vacant seat in Trump’s Cabinet: the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.

“Trump believes his actions will consolidate U.S. power and put an end to America being ‘ripped off’ by an outdated international system,” said Bronwen Maddox, the director and chief executive of Chatham House.

“The danger is that by unpicking the alliances and institutions that have underpinned US power at such breakneck speed, Trump ends up handing the US’s many advantages – in innovation, commercial strength and global influence — to Beijing,” she added.